PREPARED MARKETING SECTIONS IN FEASIBILITY STUDIES FOR RECONSTRUCTION OF OIL REFINERIES IN RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN Petromarket Research Group was a market research subcontractor in feasibility studies for reconstruction projects of many large oil refineries in Russia and Kazakhstan. Contractors of these projects are well-known Russian and foreign design and consulting companies. The task for each of these projects required identification of target markets for products of the reconstructed oil refineries and their marketing analysis. The supply and demand balance, condition of infrastructure, and competitive environment were studied for each target market. Forecasts were made for development of the target markets in the next 10–20 years. Potential sales and domestic prices of oil products were estimated for the reconstructed oil refineries. Additionally export possibilities of the refineries were analyzed with identification of the most promising lines and estimation of possible export volumes and revenues in the forecast period.

MARKETING FORECAST OF OIL INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL 2020 In 2009–2010, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation issued a general scheme of oil industry development. The Institute of Energy Strategy was the contractor for this project in 2009. Petromarket Research Group was invited into this project as a marketing consultant. The main driving forces and tendencies of the oil market in the Russian Federation were analyzed in the framework of this project and alternative market development scenarios were worked out. Prospective supply and demand balances were eventually obtained for crude oil and main oil products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas. These balances were presented for Russia as a whole and each of its 7 federal districts individually. Prices of oil and oil products and export netbacks of Russian producers were forecasted. The export potential of Russian oil production and oil refining in the forecast period was estimated with identification of risks associated with restrictions in demand, infrastructure and the economic efficiency of export. The materials of this research were updated in 2010 at the request of VNIPIneft in part related to development of oil refining and the markets for oil products. A similar but shorter study was conducted at the request of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

FORECAST PETROLEUM FUEL DEMAND IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2011-2015, COMMISSIONED BY THE RF MINISTRY OF ENERGY This work was performed in 2011. The forecast covers gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, and fuel oil markets. The demand for gasoline and diesel fuel is analyzed as broken down into environmental fuel classes. The demand forecast for fuel oil is based on its use as burner oil and as a mixing component for bunker fuel. The demand forecast for jet fuel includes, as a separate item, the demand by the civil aviation. An assessment is made of the ability of the Russian refineries to meet the demand of the domestic market for petroleum products in view of regulatory requirements for the environmental performance of fuels sold in the domestic market.

MARKETING RESEARCH OF CRUDE HYDROCARBONS AND OIL PRODUCTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Numerous market studies were conducted at the request of different Russian and foreign companies. The range of products studied included oil, gas condensate, associated petroleum gas, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, gasoline (with a separate analysis of high-octane additives), diesel fuel, jet fuel, heavy and distillate bunker fuel, residual fuel oil, and petroleum coke. Every study included retrospective analysis and forecast of supply, demand, and prices. Main factors affecting market development in the past and future such as macroeconomic, social, political, tax, technological, infrastructural, and other factors, were identified and analyzed. The demand for oil products was analyzed and forecast for separate regions, industries and large consumers. Original models of vehicle fleet development were used for forecasting the demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. Oil and gas condensate production was forecast for main oil and gas production regions. Oil refining volumes and output of oil products were forecast for oil refineries with breakdowns of prospective development for each refinery. Specific interests and requirements of concrete clients were taken into consideration in the studies.

MARKETING RESEARCH OF CRUDE HYDROCARBONS AND OIL PRODUCTS IN COUNTRIES OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (KAZAKHSTAN, UKRAINE, UZBEKISTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN) The research was conducted at the request of leading Russian oil companies. The range of products covered were crude oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, residual fuel oil, jet fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. The studies included a brief review of regional features of each country relevant to the oil market (such as geographic location, administrative division, economics, legislation, and infrastructure). Main factors affecting market development in the past and future were identified and analyzed. Retrospective analysis was carried out and forecasts were made for supply, demand, and prices of oil and oil products. Prospects for the products of Russian producers in the region were also analyzed. Specific interests and requirements of concrete clients were taken into consideration in the studies.

DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING CERTIFICATES OF REGIONAL MARKETS OF OIL PRODUCTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Marketing certificates were drawn up for markets of oil products (gasoline, diesel fuel, residual fuel oil, and jet fuel) at the request of several leading Russian oil companies. Every marketing certificate describes the market situation in a certain constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Generally a marketing certificate includes an outline of environmental, climatic and economic conditions in the region, description of the transportation and marketing infrastructures (oil depots, retail sites), estimated capacity of the regional market of oil products, outline of main operators of the wholesale, small-scale wholesale and retail markets with their assets. Some of the projects required annual updates of the marketing certificates. Marketing certificates are printed on paper or saved in digital form. A special information system developed by Petromarket Research Group is used for accessing digital marketing certificates and their visualization.

RESEARCH OF THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND PRICING IN MARKETS OF MAIN OIL PRODUCTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION The most extensive research was initiated by one of the major Russian oil companies in the course of its litigation with the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation caused by claims that the company abuses its dominant position and unreasonably raised prices in the Russian market. Petromarket Research Group was invited to make an independent expert review of some of the conclusions made by the Federal Antimonopoly Service. In particular, its conclusions about the geographic boundaries of markets, interchangeability of products, market concentration, barriers to entry and other aspects were assessed. The factors responsible for movement of wholesale prices of oil products on the domestic market were identified, mathematical models of price formation were constructed, and deviations of actual prices from normal market dynamics were analyzed. The results of this research led us to the conclusion that the claims of the Federal Antimonopoly Service towards the oil company are only partially substantiated. Various initiatives of the Federal Antimonopoly Service regarding the regulation of prices on the domestic market were reviewed and analyzed at the request of other companies. The expert reviews provided conclusions on possible economic consequences of these initiatives for market participants.